By Adam Seifert, CAFM, VP, Fleet Advisory & Analytics, Inspiration Fleet
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) aren’t just prototypes and press release hype anymore. They’re operating on public roads, scaling manufacturing, and seeing tangible policy traction. That said, we’re still far from the fully autonomous future hyped back in 2017.
Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening now and some implications to consider for your future fleet planning:
State of AV Technology
- High safety potential: Waymo just reported an 88% reduction in serious injury crashes vs human drivers over 71 million driverless miles – a statistic that should grab the eye of any fleet manager.
- New & different technology means uneven outcomes: Tesla’s recent Robotaxi trials in Austin are under NHTSA investigation for erratic behavior.
- Use cases still being tested: Robotaxis, trucking routes, and offroad applications
such as mining trucks and sidewalk delivery robots are seeing more use, but further
adoption will continue to be limited through 2026.
AV Investment & Adoption
- Amazon-owned company Zoox, acquired for $1.2B, is building a 220,000 square foot facility to manufacture up to 10,000 AVs per year. Unlike others, these are purpose-built AVs and not retrofitted cars or trucks.
- Waymo and others have services launched now in Atlanta, and additional cities are lined up over the next two years.
- Freight operator Aurora Innovation is increasing daily autonomous routes between Dallas and Houston, after completing over 60,000 miles without safety incident.
Policy and Regulatory Shifts
- NHTSA’s new framework aims to reduce administrative burden for AV fleet operators. Less duplicate reporting, longer data submission timelines, and fewer overall roadblocks are in place for on-road testing.
- The Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) are expected to be updated soon to better fit AV designs and applications.
- The current administration’s expansion of AV exceptions and reduced focus on regulatory oversight are expected to drive increased near-term research and testing.
What AV’s Can and Can’t Do (Yet)
- Can: Safely drive in fixed, repeatable routes continues to see improvement and reliability. This will see continued expansion.
- Can: Completing certain fleet tasks such as repositioning or driving to and from a service or rental hub is feasible today.
- Can’t: Clean, fuel or charge themselves, or complete complex driver services such as dropping packages or conducting sales or service work. These still require a person on-site.
What Fleet Managers Should Do Now
- Start tracking AV players and available metrics or stay connected & follow industry experts who are monitoring important AV market changes.
- Take a ride in an AV if you work in or travel to a city where they operate. Firsthand experience will change your viewpoint and how your opinion is heard.
- Advocate for AVs as a safety technology, as the potential for bringing more drivers home safely each night is increasingly shown to be on par or surpassing other ADAS and AI-based camera solutions.
- Include AV use case discovery on next year’s goals for personal development or fleet operation planning, to create time or pilot budget allocation as part of future emerging tech testing.
Most fleet managers don’t need to prepare for a driverless fleet in the next couple years. However, we should all start or continue building muscle memory in how to assess our fleet-specific use cases, vendors, and feature-based pilot opportunities.
This article is excerpted from Automotive Fleet and should be referenced as such